Selamat Menyambut Bulan Ramadhan Al Mubarak

Had Siling Hutang Untuk Amerika

Merujuk kepada hutang kerajaan Amerika. Ia memberikan signal kepada dunia bahawa ia mempengaruhi dalam banyak bidang atau negara.

Terutamanya bercakap mengenai Emas.

Pada hari selasa nanti adalah hari akhir penentuan siling bagi hutang Amerika menjadi USD 14.3 trillion dan pada hari tersebut jika tidak ada keputusan juga mengenainya makan US Treasury akan kehabisan wang untuk membayar semua tanggungannya.

Apa pun harga emas akan bergantung kepada keputusan tersebut. Mr Obama menyatakan bahawa masih ada masa bagi ke dua pihak (Demokratik dan Republikan) untuk bersama menyetujui cadangan berapa banyak untuk pengurangan perbelanjaan. Ia menyentuh kenaikan cukai dan pengurangan perbelanjaan tetapi pihak Republikan hanya akan mengundi untuk pelan pengurangan perbelanjaan sahaja.

Perbelanjaan US terlalu besar terutamanya dalam bidang ketenteraan dan masih menanggung beban antaranya di Bumi Afghanistan dan Iraq.

Bagi pemahaman saya agak sukar menentukan harga emas pada minggu mendatang namun merujuk kepada pakar-pakar eropah menjangkakan pada bulan Ogos ini jika harga 1 troy emas kekal atas USD 1,600.00 maka paras selamat adalah USD 1,580.00. Jadi pada minggu depan jika harga emas berdekatan dengan harga USD 1,580.00 makan besar kemungkinan ia akan terus jatuh sehingga USD 1,550.00. Namun begitu masih ada limit kejatuhan harganya.

Tetapi pada pandangan pakar bernama Jimmy Tintle seorang penganalisa di Transworld Futures menyatakan berkemungkinan pada 30-45 hari mendatang harga emas akan turun sekitar USD 1,475.00. Pandangan beliau agak optimistik berbanding pandangan pakar yang lain kerana menurut Ira Epstein pula dari Epstein dari Division dari kumpulan The Linn Inc mengatakan pada bulan Ogos selalunya menunjukkan harga pasaran menaik dan selalunya juga harga emas akan menjadi lebih tinggi!

Merujuk kenyataan tersebut saya lebih bersetuju dengan beliau berdasarkan pengalaman lepas-lepas terhadap harga emas ini.

List Senarai Penyimpan Emas Dunia (Tan Metrik)

Ini dia senarai rezab emas dunia... Lihatlah siapa yang di atas? Lihat bagaimana mereka begitu giat mengumpul kekayaan sebenar dunia untuk sekali lagi memerintah dunia dalam sistem perhambaan moden yang sedang mereka bina. Mereka menyimpan dan mengumpul emas, sedang kita masih lagi mengumpul kertas...WORLD OFFICIAL GOLD HOLDINGS International Financial Statistics, July 2011*

1.United States 8,133.5 74.7%
2.Germany 3,401.0 71.7%
3.IMF 2,814.0 1)
4.Italy 2,451.8 71.4%

5.France 2,435.4 66.1%

6.China 1,054.1 1.6%

7.Switzerland 1,040.1 17.6%

8.Russia 830.5 7.8%

9.Japan 765.2 3.3%

10.Netherlands 612.5 59.4%

11.India 557.7 8.7%

12.ECB 502.1 31.3%

13.Taiwan 423.6 5.0%

14.Portugal 382.5 84.8%

15.Venezuela 365.8 64.8%

16.Saudi Arabia 322.9 3.3%

17.United Kingdom 310.3 16.5%

18.Lebanon 286.8 29.6%

19.Spain 281.6 40.7%

20.Austria 280.0 55.4%

21.Belgium 227.5 38.8%

22.Algeria 173.6 4.6%

23.Philippines 152.2 11.0%

24.Libya 143.8 5.6%

25.Singapore 127.4 2.5%

26.Sweden 125.7 12.2%

27.South Africa 125.0 12.3%

28.BIS 2) 119.0 1)

29.Turkey 116.1 5.9%

30.Greece 111.5 79.5%

31.Thailand 108.9 2.9%

32.Mexico 106.0 4.0%

33.Romania 103.7 9.8%

34.Poland 102.9 4.7%

35.Australia 79.9 9.1%

36.Kuwait 79.0 12.3%

37.Egypt 75.6 11.2%

38.Indonesia 73.1 3.2%

39.Kazakhstan 67.3 9.2%

40.Denmark 66.5 3.6%

41.Pakistan 64.4 16.5%

42.Argentina 54.7 5.2%

43.Finland 49.1 22.3%

44.Bulgaria 39.9 11.2%

45.Belarus 4) 38.9 48.5%

46.WAEMU 3) 36.5 11.9%

47.Malaysia 36.4 1.4%

48.Bolivia 35.3 15.6%

49.Peru 34.7 3.7%

50.Brazil 33.6 0.5%

51.Slovakia 31.8 65.1%

52.Ukraine 27.7 3.6%

53.Ecuador 26.3 33.4%

54.Syria 25.8 5.9%

55.Morocco 22.0 4.6%

China tops world in gold output in 2010

China, which became the world’s largest gold producer since in 2007, retained its position again in 2010 by mining 340.88 tonnes, up 8.57 percent year on year, the China Gold Association said Sunday.

Increases in gold output will help China hedge against financial risks and inflation, as well as maintain economic security, the association said.

The number of domestic gold producers shrank to around 700 at the end of 2010, from 1,200 in 2002, through mergers and acquisitions. At present, China’s top ten producers account for 49.19 percent of the total gold output.

Production is concentrated in five provinces, including Shandong, Henan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Fujian, which account for 59.82 percent of total output.

Violent movements in asset prices caused by the financial crisis boosted Chinese investors’ demands for gold as a safe haven. The yearly average gold price jumped 25.6 percent from one year earlier to $1,224.53 per ounce.

http://cnbusinessnews.com/china-tops-world-in-gold-output-in-2010-2/

Harga Baru Persatuan Peniaga Emas Malaysia

Salam Berhujung Minggu

Ermm .. semakin menaik nampaknya harga emas yang mana persatuan perniaga emas tidak dapat menahan lagi kenaikan ini.

Ye laa hari raya pun semakin dekat jadi sudah tentu ramai pembeli akan mengeluh sedikit dengan kenaikan ini

Sebagai alternatif / pilihan anda boleh mendapatkan barangan kemas atau emas 999 dengan harga jaub lebih murah dari harga pasaran semasa yang ditetapkan oleh persatuan perniaga emas ini. Guaranty!! . Bagi ai Love Gold, harga semasa ai Love Gold sememangnya jauh lebih murah dari harga persatuan dan JIKA anda menjadi Stokis (diskaun lagi 6%). apun pilihan di tangan anda.

Berbalik kepada analisa teknikal, melalui rekod-rekod semasa dunia, PADA MINGGU DEPAN 18-22hb HARGA EMAS AKAN NAIK LAGI. Ini berdasarkan keraguan/ kerisauan mengenai hutang bagi negara-negara eropah. Namun ini bergantung kepada had syiling pinjaman hutang dari negara Uncle Sam (USA) Jika had ini dinaikkan makan emas akan statik atau menurun sedikit.

Pada pendapat saya krisis hutang eropah sangatlah serius dan bahananya PASTI akan sampai ke Malaysia negara kita ini. Hutang mereka ini saya yakin tidak mampu lagi dibayar oleh negara-negara berkenaan dan PASTI akan dijajah oleh negara kaya tidak lama lagi.

Had syiling hutang emas sekarang adalah USD 14.3 Trillion atau ditulis 14,000,000,000,000 betul ke tulis nih? banyaknye kosong ye... jumlah tersebut terlalu besar dan ramai pelabur besar telah bertukar kepada emas sebagai pelaburan dan anda bagaimana???

Ingatlah tiada jaminan dalam pelaburan sebenarnya oleh kerajaan Malaysia. Jadi jika anda ada menyimpan ASB atau sebagainya keluarkan sahaja dan BELI EMAS!!! sebelum terlambat. Ingat kenaikan emas adalah minimum 30% setahun! ASB? 7% sahaja!,

TIADA UPDATE HARGA DARI 18-22 JULAI 2011

TIADA UPDATE HARGA BAGI TEMPOH 18hb - 22hb JULAI. SEGALA KESULITAN AMAT DIKESALI. BAGI RUJUKAN HARGA SEMASA KLIK SINI

ANALISA BAGI MINGGU DEPAN AKAN SAYA POSTKAN WEEKEND INI.

HARI INI ADALAH TERBAIK BAGI PEMAJAK DI BANK RAKYAT UNTUK KONTRAKAN SURAT PAJAK ANDA!!! SEGERALAH BERBUAT DEMIKIAN!!!

Seminar Pelaburan Emas

Dijemput untuk menghadiri seminar mengenai Pelaburan dan Perniagaan Emas

Tarikh : Ahad 17 Julai 2011
Masa : Pukul 12.30 pm - 2.00 pm
Tempat : Hotel International Kuala Lumpur di Jalan Raja Muda Kuala Lumpur

Bayaran : Percuma

‘Perfect Storm’ May Rock World Economy by 2013

A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.
There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis, said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.

“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”
Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.
The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.7 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus.
Bond Market ‘Revolt’
World expansion may slow in the second half of 2011 as “the deleveraging process continues,” fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs, Roubini also said.
In the U.S., a failure to address the budget deficit risks a bond market “revolt,” Roubini said. President Barack Obama’s administration has been negotiating with Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, over cutting the federal government’s long-term shortfall and raising the debt ceiling.
“We’re still running over a trillion-dollar budget deficit this year, next year and most likely in 2013,” Roubini said in a speech in Singapore on June 11. “The risk is at some point, the bond market vigilantes are going to wake up in the U.S., like they did in Europe, pushing interest rates higher and crowding out the recovery.”
In Europe, officials need to restructure the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and waiting too long may result in a “more disorderly” process, Roubini also said.

Greece’s Struggle
European officials are racing to find a plan to stem Greece’s debt crisis by June 24 while sharing the cost of a new rescue with bondholders. Saddled with the euro area’s heaviest debt load, Greece is seeking additional loans after last year’s 110 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout.
Japan’s economy, the world’s third-largest, slid into a recession last quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and ensuing nuclear crisis. The government is spending an initial 4 trillion yen ($50 billion) to clean up from the disaster, which is estimated to have caused as much as 25 trillion yen in economic damage.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on June 1 that supply constraints are easing faster than expected as companies rush to repair their facilities. The risk in Japan is “if growth fizzles out after a short-term reconstruction stimulus,” leading to a renewed struggle to maintain expansion around 2013, Roubini said.
China’s economy may face a “hard landing” after 2013 as government efforts to boost growth through investment cause excess capacity, Roubini told reporters.
‘Overcapacity’ in China
“China is now relying increasingly not just on net exports but on fixed investment” which has climbed to about 50 percent of gross domestic product, he said. “Down the line, you are going to have two problems: a massive non-performing loan problem in the banking system and a massive amount of overcapacity is going to lead to a hard landing.”
A record $2.7 trillion of loans were extended in China over two years, pushing property prices to all-time highs even as authorities set price ceilings, demanded higher deposits and limited second-home purchases.
The nation’s current challenge is to maintain growth and curb price gains ahead of a leadership change next year, Roubini said. Officials may use administrative steps and price controls, as well as raising rates further and allowing currency appreciation, if inflation becomes a bigger problem, he said.
“The policy challenge through next year, where you have a delicate political transition of the leadership, is to maintain growth in the 8 to 9 percent range while pushing inflation below what it is right now,” said Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC.
After next year, the bigger challenge in China is “to reduce fixed investment and savings and increase consumption. Otherwise after 2013, there will be a hard landing,” he said.
Roubini in July 2006 predicted a “catastrophic” global financial meltdown that central bankers would be unable to prevent. The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 sparked turmoil that led to the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

moneynews.com

China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills

China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury.

Treasury bills are securities that mature in one year or less that are sold by the U.S. Treasury Department to fund the nation’s debt. Mainland Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bills are reported in column 9 of the Treasury report

Until October, the Chinese were generally making up for their decreasing holdings in Treasury bills by increasing their holdings of longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, until October, China’s overall holdings of U.S. debt continued to increase.

Since October, however, China has also started to divest from longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, as reported by the Treasury Department, China’s ownership of the U.S. national debt has decreased in each of the last five months on record, including November, December, January, February and March.

Prior to the fall of 2008, acccording to Treasury Department data, Chinese ownership of short-term Treasury bills was modest, standing at only $19.8 billion in August of that year. But when President George W. Bush signed legislation to authorize a $700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry in October 2008 and President Barack Obama signed a $787-billion economic stimulus law in February 2009, Chinese ownership of short-term U.S. Treasury bills skyrocketed.

By December 2008, China owned $165.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, according to the Treasury Department. By March 2009, Chinese Treasury bill holdings were at $191.1 billion. By May 2009, Chinese holdings of Treasury bills were peaking at $210.4 billion.

However, China’s overall appetite for U.S. debt increased over a longer span than did its appetite for short-term U.S. Treasury bills. In August 2008, before the bank bailout and the stimulus law, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt stood at $573.7 billion. That number continued to escalate past May 2009– when China started to reduce its holdings in short-term Treasury bills–and ultimately peaked at $1.1753 trillion last October.

As of March 2011, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt had decreased to 1.1449 trillion.
At the end of March 2011, by which time the Chinese had dropped their Treasury bill holdings 97 percent from their peak, the publicly marketable segment of the U.S. national debt had almost doubled from August 2008, hitting $9.11 trillion. Of that $9.11 trillion, $5.8 trillion was in intermediate-term Treasury notes, $1.7 trillion was in short-term Treasury bills; $931.5 billion was in long-term Treasury bonds, and $640.7 billion was in TIPS.

Before the end of March 2012, the Treasury must redeem all of the $1.7 trillion in Treasury bills that were extant as of March 2011 and find new or old buyers who will continue to invest in U.S. debt. But, for now, the Chinese at least do not appear to be bullish customers of short-term U.S. debt.

As of the close of business on Thursday, the total U.S. debt was $14.34 trillion, according to the Daily Treasury Statement. Of that, approximately $9.74 trillion was debt held by the public and approximately $4.61 trillion was “intragovernmental” debt.

2nd Lowest Peak 2011

Harga emas jatuh lagi dibawah USD 1,490 / auns pertama kalinya untuk 6 minggu, ia terjejas dengan kejatuhan harga minyak dunia (tapi Malaysia naik harga), pengukuhan dolar US dan Kelulusan pelan bantuan negara Greece oleh negara kaya eropah (France dan German).

Next week saya meramalkan harga emas dan perak ke paras lebih rendah kerana ratio kenaikan dan penurunan harga emas memberikan peaks yang hampir sama dengan situasi sekarang berbanding 2004. Jadi seperti yang pernah saya beritahu dahulu dengan harga rendah sekarang sebaiknya anda membeli emas setidaknya sehingga hujung tahun sebelum krismas eve ada beroleh keuntungan 10% -15%. Bagi saya ini adalah cukup baik dalam perancangan pelaburan anda dan harga emas adalah dalam Bull Market. Makna ia akan berterusan naik!

Apa lagi call saya untuk mendapatkan harga terbaik untuk emas anda!!!