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Kenaikan Harga Emas dari fgjam @ 13 Februari 2012
Update harga terkini dari Federation of Goldsmith and Jewelers Associations of Malaysia
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Reasons to Buy Gold
It's true.
The rich ARE getting richer.
Whether the economy is up or down, whether unemployment is high or low... the billionaires of the world always seem two steps ahead of everyone else.
In fact, Forbes recently reported over the past year alone, the richest people in the world are now $1 trillion richer!
That's $1,000,000,000,000... with twelve zeros.
All the while, everyone else's retirement funds, investments, and salaries either remained stagnant or have dropped.
It doesn't just seem fair.
In fact, it's downright infuriating.
15 Fundamental Reasons to Own Gold
1. Global Currency Debasement
The U.S. dollar is fundamentally and technically very weak and should fall dramatically over the next few years. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the U.S. dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.
2. Rising Investment Demand
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. Own both the physical metal and select mining shares.
3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the U.S.
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels, which has portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.
4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (U.S. Dollar)
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the U.S., interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.
5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations
Authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the U.S. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the U.S.'s footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.
6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand
Mined gold is roughly 2,500 tons per year and traditional demand (jewelry, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.
7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years.
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply/demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.
8. Large Short Positions
To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central Bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tons (30-50% of all Central Bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the Central Banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.
9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging
Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to hedge and gold producers are not only not hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.
10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial Speculation on the Short Side.
When gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access Central Bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per year), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay-up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.
11. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point when they will be Reluctant to Provide more Gold to the Market.
The Central Banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern Central Banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of U.S. Dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar.
12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity
Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach 500 tons in the next few years.
13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold Dinar), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing.
14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, the U.S. occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing conflict between the U.S. and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the U.S. dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold.
15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage
All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1 trillion U.S. Dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.
Conclusion
Gold is under-valued, under-owned and under-appreciated. It is most assuredly not well understood by most investors. At the beginning of the 1970's when gold was about to undertake its historic move from $35 to $800 per ounce in the succeeding ten years, the same observations would have been valid. The only difference this time is that the fundamentals for gold are actually better
The U.S. dollar is fundamentally and technically very weak and should fall dramatically over the next few years. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the U.S. dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.
2. Rising Investment Demand
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. Own both the physical metal and select mining shares.
3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the U.S.
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels, which has portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.
4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (U.S. Dollar)
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the U.S., interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.
5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations
Authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the U.S. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the U.S.'s footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.
6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand
Mined gold is roughly 2,500 tons per year and traditional demand (jewelry, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.
7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years.
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply/demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.
8. Large Short Positions
To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central Bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tons (30-50% of all Central Bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the Central Banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.
9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging
Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to hedge and gold producers are not only not hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.
10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial Speculation on the Short Side.
When gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access Central Bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per year), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay-up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.
11. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point when they will be Reluctant to Provide more Gold to the Market.
The Central Banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern Central Banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of U.S. Dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar.
12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity
Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach 500 tons in the next few years.
13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold Dinar), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing.
14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, the U.S. occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing conflict between the U.S. and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the U.S. dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold.
15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage
All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1 trillion U.S. Dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.
Conclusion
Gold is under-valued, under-owned and under-appreciated. It is most assuredly not well understood by most investors. At the beginning of the 1970's when gold was about to undertake its historic move from $35 to $800 per ounce in the succeeding ten years, the same observations would have been valid. The only difference this time is that the fundamentals for gold are actually better
February 9th, 2012
By Luke Burgess
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Gold steady on China inflation; Greece eyed
SINGAPORE |
(Reuters) - Gold held steady above $1,730 an ounce on Thursday, after dropping about a percent in the previous session, as a surprisingly high China inflation number supported prices, while investors also focused on Greece's debt talks for direction.
Gold came under pressure as the euro softened after Greek political leaders failed to conclude a deal for a bailout package crucial to avoiding a messy debt default, but the higher-than-expected inflation data out of China helped bullion pare early losses.
"Once the higher CPI (consumer price index) came out, inflation worries prompted traditional buyers to come in quickly," said a U.S.-based trader.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,733.59 an ounce by 0323 GMT, recovering from an intra-day low of $1,725.49. U.S. gold edged up 0.3 percent to $1,736.40 an ounce.
China's annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.5 percent in January, well ahead of market expectations and breaking a five-month trend of easing price pressures as consumers ramped up spending during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday season.
The inflation data may temper hopes of aggressive easing by China's central bank in the near term, but many economists expect inflation to ease February onwards, leaving China's policy of targeted monetary and fiscal easing intact.
Gold is seen as a good inflation hedge and benefits when accommodative monetary policies raise inflation outlook.
Technical analysis suggested that spot could fall to $1,698 an ounce during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao
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Labur Emas Mengikut Syariah
Umat Islam perlu mengembalikan fungsi asas emas sebagai mata wang dan aset simpanan. - Gambar hiasan
EMAS pada sepanjang zaman dianggap sebagai simbol kekayaan, kemasyhuran dan kecantikan. Dalam sejarah ekonomi Islam, emas merupakan mata wang dan aset simpanan yang baik.
Teks al-Quran dan hadis banyak menjelaskan kepentingan emas dalam kehidupan manusia. Emas dirujuk sebagai mata wang dinar dalam firman-Nya: Dan di antara ahli-ahli kitab, ada orang yang kalau engkau amanahkan dia menyimpan sejumlah besar harta sekalipun, dia akan mengembalikannya (dengan sempurna) kepada kamu dan ada pula di antara mereka, yang kalau engkau amanahkan menyimpan hanya satu dinar sahaja pun, dia tidak akan mengembalikannya kepada kamu, kecuali kalau kamu selalu menuntutnya. (ali-'Imran: 75)
Selain digambarkan sebagai harta kekayaan dalam surah ali-'Imran: 14 dan 91, al-Nisa': 20, al-Taubah: 34, al-Zukhruf:33-35, al-Quran juga mendedahkan emas akan kekal sebagai barang berharga sehingga hari akhirat seperti dalam surah al-Israk: 93, al-Kahfi: 31, al-Hajj: 23, al-Faathir:33, al-Zukhruf: 53, al-Zukhruf: 71 dan al-Insan: 21.
Selain dijadikan barang kemas, emas juga menyimpan kekayaan yang paling unggul. Ini kerana ia tidak boleh dibinasakan dan tidak hilang nilainya. Malah, nilainya sentiasa meningkat dalam jangka masa panjang.
Ini dibuktikan dengan kenaikan harga emas daripada RM1,740.65/per aun kepada RM5,890.93/per aun, iaitu kenaikan sebanyak 238 peratus harga emas dalam tempoh lima tahun (2006 hingga 2011) atau secara purata kenaikan setahun adalah 48 peratus.
Kebenaran emas sebagai penyimpan nilai yang stabil boleh disaksikan melalui nilainya yang hampir sama sejak zaman Rasulullah SAW hingga sekarang.
Dalam sebuah hadis daripada Syahib bin Garqadah berkata: Saya mendengar penduduk bercerita tentang 'Urwah, bahawa Nabi SAW memberikan wang satu dinar kepadanya agar dibeli seekor kambing untuk beliau, lalu dengan wang satu dinar tersebut ia membeli dua ekor kambing, kemudian ia jual satu ekor dengan harga satu dinar. Ia pulang membawa satu dinar dan satu ekor kambing. Nabi SAW mendoakannya dengan keberkatan dalam jual belinya. Seandainya 'Urwah membeli tanah pun, ia pasti beruntung. (riwayat al-Bukhari)
Hadis ini menjelaskan harga seekor kambing pada zaman Rasulullah SAW lebih kurang satu dinar. Agak menarik, kestabilan harga emas terbukti dengan harga seekor kambing pada zaman kini juga lebih kurang RM750 atau satu dinar (bersamaan nilaian 4.25 gram emas
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